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NCAA Football Week 5 Expert Picks

Posted by T.K. Hann on 9/26/2012 7:48:49 PM

One of the hardest thing to do is follow my favorite teams in NCAA Football Week 5 Expert Picks and then scrounge through your TV guide hoping that you can watch the game you’ve put money on. So to change things up, I’m featuring four nationally televised games in this week’s edition. Check your local listings, remember that the home team is in CAPS and that the lines are subject to move as action comes in.

#5 GEORGIA BULLDOGS (-13.0) over Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday, September 29th --- 3:30pm EST
Where to Watch: CBS

Tennessee might be one of the worst well-known programs to bank on in college football. They’re currently 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS and every major trend is leaning away from them this weekend. They’re terrible on the road, and there’s no real reason to find yourself caught in the cross hairs despite the fact that they’re 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Georgia.

Georgia has one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Aaron Murray, who already has 1,092 passing yards and 13 combined touchdowns (10 passing, 3 rushing). The Bulldogs have been lighting up the scoreboard and have averaged 47.5 points per game, and Tennessee is coming off a game where they allowed Arkansas to score 26 points. Georgia has plenty to play for as a top-5 team in the rankings, so don’t expect them to go easy on the Vols.

#14 Ohio State Buckeyes (+3.0) over #20 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
Saturday, September 29th --- 3:30pm EST
Where to Watch: ABC

There’s nothing about the 20th ranked Spartans that should invigorate you to side with them as a home dog this weekend. At just 1-3 ATS this season, Michigan State’s offense has failed to produce in key situations. Everyone who thought this was “their year” has been horribly off the mark. Listen, I thought they’d be good, but I didn’t expect them to be this bad.

The Buckeyes have been playing with passion and purpose this year, despite the fact that their playoff chances are non-existent because of all the sanctions. They’re an absolute steal as a road dog in NCAA Football Week 5 Expert Picks this weekend. Whatever Urban Meyer is putting in the water with his new team is working. The Buckeyes are a great take this weekend against an overmatched Spartans club. They’re already 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings when playing Michigan State. There’s no telling what the Buckeyes can do to decimate Michigan State’s hopes for the rankings.

#18 OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (+2.5) over #12 Texas Longhorns
Saturday, September 29th --- 7:50pm EST
Where to Watch: FOX Network

The Texas Longhorns have been falling hard and fast over the past two years, and their admirable play over the last month of college football has kept them relevant. That’s about to come to an end as they visit the Oklahoma State Cowboys this weekend. Texas is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS with a failed cover against Wyoming in their season opener as their only spread loss.

However, Oklahoma State was shocked back to life by the Arizona Wildcats in a 38-59 blowout on the road. Don’t expect them to take anyone lightly from here on out. The Cowboys love airing the ball out at home, and as home dogs against the more popular Longhorns, they’re a great play in my NCAA Football Week 5 Expert Picks. The biggest edge the Cowboys have here is that they’re coming off a bye week, and they’re 3-0-1 ATS following a week’s rest. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September, and while this is bound to be a tough matchup for them, I’m encouraged by the small margin. A small point cushion for the home team is enough for make me stand by them.

#22 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (-13.5)  over Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, September 29th --- 8:00pm EST
Where to Watch: ABC

The injury to Montee Ball is the biggest misnomer in this matchup. He probably won’t be back Saturday against Nebraska, and the guys who are replacing him are adequate, but they’re not the game breaker that the Badgers need to cover this mammoth line. Nebraska, on the other hand, just dropped 73 points this past week and hasn’t been held below the 30-point mark all season. I don’t love them that much in the long run, but this game is a mortal lock as a NCAA Football Week 5 Expert Pick considering Wisconsin’s inability to keep games close or produce reliably on offense.


 


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