UFC is back again this weekend with another strong card, even after a late switch to the Main Event. Raphael dos Anjos will now be taking on Paul Felder after Islam Makhach withdrew this week, headlining a card filled with a number of compelling matchups, including a heavy-hitting showdown between Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Khaos Williams.
Here’s a breakdown of all the the weekend’s action including picks in every fight with all odds coming from SportsBetting.com.
Roque Martinez (+185) vs. Don’tale Mayes (-222)
Don’tale Mayes may only be 7-4 in his career, but he is a tough, well-rounded fighter with heavy hands and a strong ground game, and he’s got a good matchup against Roque Martinez. Mayes is the better, more versatile and far more athletic fighter and he will also enjoy a nine-inch reach advantage over Martinez. This won’t be a close fight as Mayes will dominate from start to finish and cruise to an easy victory.
Tony Gravely (-172) vs. Geraldo de Freitas (+145)
Though he enters this match as the underdog, Geraldo de Freitas has both the size advantage and the reach advantage over Tony Gravely, and he uses his length with intelligent attacks to drain an opponent. Though he’s primarily a striker, de Freitas is also the better grappler in this matchup, averaging four takedowns per fight and hitting those takedowns with about 50 percent accuracy. Simply put, de Freitas is just the better and more versatile fighter and will get the underdog win here.
Kanako Murata (-172) vs. Randa Markos (+145)
Both of these fighters come into this match intent on grappling, but Randa Markos comes in with the size advantage against her opponent for the first time in a long time. Kanako Murata will try to get takedowns against Markos, but Markos is the stronger and more physical fighter who comes into this fight a little underrated simply due to her 10-10-1 record, which is skewed by losses to some of MMA’s best. This is a step up in competition for Murata, and a step down in competition for Markos. Markoswill will get the win.
Jose Quinonez (+115) vs. Louis Smolka (-139)
Louis Smolka goes into every fight looking for a knockout while Jose Quinonez does not typically finish fights, winning most of his matches by decision. It’s a clash in styles here, but Smolka is simply the better fighter. He’s good on the ground, has a strong body kick and excels at wearing down an opponent before finishing. Smolka at his best can challenge the best and is just in a different class than Quinonez. Expect him to get an easy win here.
Rhys McKee (+161) vs Alex Morono (-189)
Alex Morono is going to come out right out of the gates in this fight, as he always does, and is going to hunt for the knockout. Morono is all offense and can win this fight by standing and striking or with his grappling ability. Rhys McKee is a strong fighter himself with solid ground game and good striking ability and he does come into this match with a six-inch reach advantage. Still, Morono is the more complete fighter and just has more paths to victory here.
Miranda Granger (-111) vs. Ashley Yoder (-111)
Ashley Yoder is a takedown specialist and is going to look to get Miranda Granger on the ground early and often in this match, but she’s also quite susceptible to big hits especially against an opponent like Granger who has extremely fast hands. Granger is a patient and versatile fighter with decent takedown defense who should control this fight and get the victory.
Kay Hansen (-227) vs. Cory McKenna (+190)
Neither fighter comes into this match with a ton of experience, but Kay Hansen is the favorite for a reason and it’s due to her grappling ability. Hansen will look to get Cory McKenna on the ground early and she has proven the ability to finish the fight. Hansen is green on her feet, but she comes into this match with a five-inch reach advantage if this match comes down to striking. Hansen is the better all-around fighter in this one and should come out with the victory.
Eryk Anders (-139) vs. Antonio Arroyo (+115)
Antonio Arroyo might be the underdog against Eryk Anders in this fight, but he has the better ground game, is a more well-rounded striker and knows how to keep his distance from a heavy hitter like Anders. Arroyo can win this fight on his feet or the ground and simply has more paths to victory against a fighter he really only relies on his athleticism.
Saparbek Safarov (+240) vs. Julian Marquez (-303)
Julian Marquez is coming off of a two-year layoff following an injury, but he’s back and is the heavy favorite in this fight for a reason. He’s got heavy hands, loves to trade punches and is extremely patient in finding his knockout opportunities. Saparbek Safarov’s only chance to win this fight is the get Marquez to the ground, but he’s relatively knockout prone against a heavy hitter. Marquez is going to win this fight before Safarov even has a chance to get it to the ground.
Abdul Razak Alhassan (-233) vs. Khaos Williams (+195)
Abdul Razak Alhassan is a knockout machine with all ten of his wins coming from a KO while Khaus Williams is a heavy hitter himself with five knockouts in his 10 wins. Both of these guys know how to finish fights and they’re both durable, with their only losses coming in decisions. But at the end of the day, Alhassan is the more experienced and tested fighter and will come in with a chip on his shoulder after his loss back in July.
Paul Felder vs. Raphael dos Anjos
This match was supposed to feature Islam Makhachev taking on Raphael dos Anjos, butMakhachev withdrew late due to a staph infection that spread throughout his fight team. As a result, dos Anjos will now face Paul Felder on short notice. Felder is a good striker, but dos Anjos has a clear path to victory if he can take Felder to the ground as he’s been training to fight grapplers for his past several fights. It might not be a quick or easy, but expect dos Anjos to emerge victorious in the Main Event.