We’ve got another action-packed weekend in the UFC with a 12-fight card featuring an entertaining mix of emerging stars, grizzled veterans, and household names headlined by a heavy-hitting main event fight between Alex Perez and Deiveson Figueiredo.
Here’s a breakdown of all the weekend’s action including picks in every fight with all odds coming from SportsBetting.com.
Louis Cosce (-400) vs. Sasha Palatnikov (+300)
Louis Cosce is a heavy favorite in this match for a reason. He’s a versatile fighter with high-level wrestling ability and a powerful striking ability leading to a 100 percent finish rate in his seven fights, going 7-0. He can win this fight on the ground or on his feet. Sasha Palatnikov is going to be in trouble from the start with his shaky takedown defense, but even if he stays on his feet Cosce has a chance to knock him out. -400 is a heavy price to pay, but Cosce is going to win this fight.
Pick: Louis Cosce (-400)
Kyle Daukaus (-303) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+240)
Both of these fighters are good on the ground, but Kyle Daukaus is the far more versatile fighter with much more experience against quality competition with a reach and size advantage on top of that. The only way Dustin Stoltzfus can win this fight will be if he can get him on the ground and stay on top of him, but Daukaus is simply too talented on his feet and on the matt to let that happen.
Pick: Kyle Daukaus (-303)
Alan Jouban (-139) vs. Jared Gooden (+110)
Jared Gooden is the younger and more inexperienced fighter in this match, but that’s likely going to work in his favor here as Alan Jouban’s best fighting days are long behind him. In lighter weight fights, speed and quickness play a big factor, and the older Jouban simply won’t be able to match the speed and aggressiveness of the younger and fresher Gooden. Plus, Gooden has the reach advantage here. Expect the underdog to get it done.
Pick: Jared Gooden (+110)
Nicolas Dalby (+250) vs Daniel Rodriguez (-333)
While both of these fighters have shown the ability to win big matches, Daniel Rodriguez enters this fight as the heavy favorite with his heavy striking hands and ability to get the knockout. Nicolas Dalby, meanwhile, has been prone to big punches even against opponents that aren’t traditionally heavy hitters. Dalby is going to be in trouble against Rodriguez, who is going to win this fight – likely in a knockout.
Pick: Daniel Rodriguez (-333)
Antonina Shevchenko (-161) vs. Ariane Lipski (+130)
Though Antonina Shevchenko is strong on her feet with a good striking ability and powerful leg kicks, her glaring weakness is her takedown defense. That gives Ariane Lipski a very clear path to victory in this match. Even though Lipski does not typically favor offensive wrestling, she’s undoubtedly the better fighter if this match goes to the ground and Shevchenko will be powerless to keep the fight upright.
Pick: Ariane Lipski (+130)
Joaquin Buckley (-278) vs. Jordan Wright (+225)
After a spectacular knockout finish in his last fight, Joaquin Buckley enters this fight as a sizeable favorite but is quite a bit overrated here. Though he’s an underdog, Jordan Wright is the better fighter with quicker hands and a noticeable height and reach advantage that will come into play here. Wright might not get the knockout here because Buckley has proven he can take a punch, but he’s the better bet here, especially as a sizeable underdog.
Pick: Jordan Wright (+225)
Brandon Moreno (-189) vs. Brandon Royval (+162)
He may not look like a big striker, but Brandon Royval has a tendency to overwhelm an opponent with a barrage of smaller straight punches with his long reach combined with knees, kicks and a dangerous spinning elbow. Brandom Moreno might be a little stronger if this fight goes to the ground, but Royval can hold his own on there as well and has the length to avoid ever getting to that point. He may be the underdog, but Royval is the better fighter in this match.
Pick: Brandon Royval (+162)
Paul Craig (-172) vs. Mauricio Rua (+140)
Paul Craig is a fighter who can finish a fight at any time, from any position, and that always makes him dangerous, but that is amplified against an older Mauricio Rua who is well past his prime and has looked extremely slow and hittable in his last few fights. The only way Rua can win this fight is by an early knockout, but he just doesn’t have the speed or quickness to do it anymore, especially against an opponent he’s already faced.
Pick: Paul Craig (-172)
Cynthia Calvillo (-250) vs Katlyn Chookagian (+200)
Though Cynthia Calvillo is the stronger wrestler in this matchup and will likely look to get the fight on the ground early and often, but she’s also coming up a weight class to face Katlyn Chookagian and won’t be able to get those takedowns so easily. If she can’t get the fight to the ground, she just does not have a proven striking ability and is at a massive height and reach disadvantage against Chookagian. She may be a sizable underdog, but Chookagian is the best bet here.
Pick: Katlyn Chookagian (+200)
Mike Perry (-152) vs. Tim Means (+125)
At his best, Mike Perry is a strong striker who can trade punches and potentially get knockouts in a standup fight, but he has not looked anywhere close to his best of late. He’s rusty, undisciplined and has no technique. Tim Means, meanwhile, is a much better and more disciplined fighter with a good striking ability who knows how to use his elbows and knees in a fight. Means is clearly the better fighter in this matchup, even if he is the underdog.
Pick: Tim Means (+125)
Jennifer Maia (+800) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (-1429)
To be clear, Jennifer Maia has no business being in this fight. Valentina Shevchenko is one of the greatest women’s fighters of all time going against an opponent nobody even expected to be here. Shevchenko is absolutely going to win this fight, it’s just a matter of how and when. At such long odds, it’s probably not even worth betting on Shevchenko in this fight, but you could potentially use this pick as part of a parlay, because Shevchenko is not losing.
Pick: Valentina Shevchenko (-1429)
Alex Perez (+250) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (-333)
Deiveson Figueiredo wins fights because of his raw power and heavy punches, and that’s what he’s going to try to do against Alex Perez on this card’s main event. Perez, meanwhile, is a strong wrestler who is going to try to strike quickly and put Figueiredo on his back, but he’ll have to get in close while avoiding knockout blows from Figueiredo. Even if Perez can overcome Figueiredo’s big strikes and get the match to the ground, Figueiredo’s ground game is much improved and he won’t lose the fight there. Figueiredo is the heavy favorite in this match for a reason and he will get the victory.
Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo (-333)