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June 02, 2020

Breaking Down the Betting Odds for Drew Lock to Win NFL MV

Longshots that had 100-1 odds to be named NFL MVP before the season started have gone on to win the award in each of the last two years, and both of those players were quarterbacks entering their second year in the NFL.

After making just one start in his rookie season, Patrick Mahomes took the league by storm during the 2018 campaign. Mahomes tossed 50 touchdowns to lead Kansas City to a 12-4 record and bested Drew Brees for the MVP. Lamar Jackson followed in his footsteps last year, leading Baltimore to a 13-2 mark on his way to becoming the second unanimous MVP in NFL history.

Now, Drew Lock is looking to make it three in a row. Lock has the same NFL MVP preseason odds as Mahomes and Jackson, according to SportsBetting.com, and he is entering his second season after a promising rookie campaign.

Lock was 4-1 as a starter down the stretch in 2019, and the Broncos spent this offseason giving him the tools he needs to succeed. Only time will determine whether Lock becomes the franchise quarterback that John Elway has longed for since taking over or the next signal caller to fail to live up to No. 7’s legacy.

2020 NFL MVP Odds – Drew Lock 100-1

A quarterback can’t do it alone no matter how talented he may be, so let’s look at Denver’s other pieces.

Broncos Receivers

Denver dealt Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco midway through last season, but this position figures to be much improved despite the loss of the talented receiver. Courtland Sutton emerged as a solid No. 1 option in 2019. He hauled in 72 receptions for over 1,100 yards and was selected to the Pro Bowl in his second season. Sutton did that despite being zeroed in on after the Sanders’ trade, but he should see less attention in 2020 with the Broncos’ other additions.

Improving the receiver position was the top priority for Denver’s front office in the draft. This was the deepest class of receivers in modern history, and the Broncos took two of the top talents with their first two picks.

Jerry Jeudy falling to No. 15 was cause enough for celebration in the Mile High City. Jeudy was seen as the top receiver in the draft by most pundits. He is the most polished route runner coming out of college in recent memory, and he has all the physical tools you want in a wideout.

K.J. Hamler was projected to be a possible late first round pick, so the Broncos jumped at the chance to take the Penn State standout in the second round. Hamler is fast and explosive out of the break, and he excelled at creating separation at the collegiate level.

The Broncos have a potential star at tight end in Noah Fant too. Fant was Denver’s second leading receiver as a rookie, and he did most of his damage in the second half of the season. He caught 20 passes for 185 yards and one touchdown in his first eight games, but he more than doubled that production with 20 receptions for 377 yards and two touchdowns over the last eight games.

Broncos Running Backs

Phillip Lindsay averaged 4.5 YPC and ran for over 1,000 yards last season. It was the second straight 1,000-yard season for the undrafted running back out of Colorado, and he has picked up 4.9 YPC over his two-year career. He has been great at moving the chains on the ground, but Denver decided to make an upgrade with the addition of Melvin Gordon III.

Gordon makes this backfield one of the most dangerous in the league. Lindsay’s primary weakness was his inability to contribute as a receiver out of the backfield, but Gordon will provide Lock with a safety valve. Gordon averaged 8.4 yards per reception during his five seasons with the Chargers.

Denver Offensive Line

The Broncos offensive line was one of the better units in the league when it came to run blocking in 2019. Denver ranked 11th in run blocking according to Football Outsiders, but their pass protection left much to be desired. This unit ranked 25th in that category with an adjusted sack rate of 8.1 percent.

There has been little consistency up front as left tackle Garett Bolles is the only projected starter that has been on the team for more than one year coming into 2020. Bolles was solid in pass protection, only allowing four sacks last season, but he has ranked in the top three in penalties among offensive linemen since entering the league in 2017.

Left guard Dalton Risner is entering his second season in the league. Right tackle Ja’Wuan James is coming into his second season on the team while right guard Graham Glasgow was signed away from Detroit in March. Rookie center Lloyd Cushenberry III is expected to start immediately so chemistry will be a major concern up front.

2020 Drew Lock MVP Prediction

Denver gave Lock everything he could have wanted in terms of skill position players this offseason. The receiving corps has the potential to be one of the best in the league, and the one-two punch of Lindsay and Gordon could give defenses fits. However, Lock is likely to be under pressure often behind this offensive line. The second-year quarterback is no stranger to that from his time running away from SEC defenses at Missouri so at least he is more equipped to handle the pressure than most young quarterbacks.

There are still plenty of questions to be answered about Lock’s skillset and the offensive line is a major question mark, but betting on Drew Lock to win the NFL MVP at 100-1 odds is solid value and the payoff is enormous.