Bankroll to bankrupt in three minutes
Dear Mark,
Since I don't gamble very often and chances of losing eight
in a row are very remote, don't you think it's logical to
double my wager every time I lose? Albert M.
I see your logic, if you call it logic, but it isn't. What
you are describing is called the Martingale System, a historic
name for doubling up after every loss. In essence, you the
gambler double your previous bet (after a loss) to recoup
that loss plus win back your initial wager. It is probably-no,
IT IS-the worst money management system you can use. You would
think, logically, this form of betting is foolproof because
you have to win sooner or later. The problem is, you don't
have an inexhaustible bankroll, and our friends who own the
casinos will limit the maximum size of your wager. Also, ask
any gambler you know if six or eight losses in a row is not
unusual. I'm experiencing it now with a computer program that
picks the pros in football.
But Albert, I really want you to think this through. Here's
you. You bet $2 and lose, then $4 to recoup your losses. Then
$8, $16, $32, $64, $128, $256, $512. Ka-ching, Kaa-ching,
you invested $1,020 just to get your measly two bucks back.
Oops, but you were playing on a game that had a table limit
of $200. A string of six defeats and the casino automatically
protects itself plus sets your loss limit at $252. Wiped out,
Albert, in less than three minutes.
The Martingale system is not logical, it's downright lethal.
It's so obvious, Albert. No more, please.
Dear Mark,
What is a hardway number on a crap game and is it a good bet?
Steve. R.
A hardway wager is a 4-6-8-10, but only paired up as a 2-2,
3-3, 4-4, 5-5 combination. For example; if you have a hard
six wager, a pair of 3-3s would have to roll for you to win.
Not a 2-4 or 5-1 dice roll. Is it a good bet? No! House advantage
on a hardway 6 or 8 is 9.1 percent. A hardway 4 or 10 has
an 11.1 percent casino edge. Readers of Deal Me In only make
wagers that have a house advantage of two percent or less.
Steve, say adios to this wager.
Dear Mark,
On my last two trips to Las Vegas I have found slots ($1 machines
at the Stratosphere) advertising a return of 98%. I didn't
seem to get a decent return on them. Shouldn't the casino,
in such a regulated business like gambling, at least pay back
the percentage they advertise? Dottie C.
When a casino advertises that its slot machines return 98
percent, it means the machine is pre-programmed "over
the long run" to return 98¢ of every dollar played.
Don't come to expect that for each dollar inserted you will
automatically get 98¢ dribbling back into the tray. The
operative phrase here is "over the long run." A
"long run" could mean weeks, months, and even years
on any given machine.
But let's assume the machine you were playing was paying off
98¢ for each and every dollar bet. Using a liberal definition
of the word "good" machine, we'll allow the casino
a measly 2% edge. Well, Dottie, if you were to insert $60
per minute into a 98% payback slot machine (not difficult
on a dollar machine at $3 a whack using a credit button),
you will lose about $72 an hour. Multiply that by eight hours
of play and you will come up $576 short in the purse. Even
on those advertised high payback machines, the casino still
has a way of grinding away at your gambling capital.
The way you avoid this $576 grind is to behave more conservatively
by playing on smaller denomination machines (25¢), for
shorter increments of time. Casino operators know all to well
that such cautious behavior has negative implications on the
casino win for the house. They would much prefer you ante-up
silver slugs and play all day.
Oh, by the way, Dottie, all too often players like you believe
that the casino is in the gambling business. Wrong! They are
in the math business. On pre-programmed slot machines that
give the house a certain percentage return, you are the only
one doing the gambling here.
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